Beyond the Sustainability Illusion Why and how Sufficiency Must Confront Systemic Collapse

For more than three decades, researchers have proposed a range of sufficiency policies aimed at long-term sustainability. Yet, these proposals remain largely unable to overcome the political, economic, and cultural barriers that prevent their implementation. We know what needs to be done and the consequences of inaction; however, moving away from ecologically destructive practices continues to feel elusive and almost impossible. Despite clear scientific warnings, the structural drivers of ecological degradation remain firmly in place. In many respects, our economies are becoming even more destructive, while the political will to confront this reality is rapidly evaporating.

Empirical trends are unequivocal: greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, biodiversity loss accelerates, while geopolitical tensions fuel unprecedented increases in military spending. These developments call into question the mainstream sustainability paradigm, which assumes that incremental reforms can avert the collapse of socio-economic systems and ecological disruption. Sustainability has become politically polarised and institutionally constrained, while the material foundations of high-consumption lifestyles remain unquestioned. Are we tilting at windmills? We are heading towards an ecological disaster at breakneck speed, and it is increasingly unlikely that the sustainable transformation envisioned by researchers will occur at the scale and pace required to prevent profound social and ecological disruption.

The core delusion lies in believing that sustainability can be achieved without fundamentally altering consumption-driven socio-economic structures. The idea that societies can maintain the material excess and luxury enjoyed in some parts of the world, and aspired to in others, without crossing planetary boundaries is incompatible with biophysical realities. What we lack is not knowledge about necessary ecological limits, but a realistic understanding of how to transform the socio-economic structures that systematically exceed them.

Recognising this requires a shift in sustainability research. Instead of focusing on incremental reforms within an assumedly stable world, we must acknowledge that large-scale socio-economic and ecological disruptions are increasingly likely, if not already underway. The question is no longer how to avoid collapse, but how to prepare for and navigate it in ways that uphold justice and human dignity and collective resilience. What institutional arrangements are needed when existing systems begin to fracture? How can societies ensure basic needs, rights, and solidarity in conditions of scarcity and instability? Addressing these questions requires moving beyond the abstraction of "sustainable transformation" toward a pragmatic engagement with unpredictable system dynamics. Accepting the inevitability of disruptive change is a necessary step toward designing  just processes to confront its consequences.

History offers an unexpected source of inspiration. Early neoclassical economists marginalised during the dominance of Keynesian thought until the '70s, when the dominant economic paradigm failed to respond effectively,  figures like Hayek and Friedman seized the moment, offering an alternative vision that rapidly gained political influence. Today's polycrisis, including climate breakdown, biodiversity collapse, and geopolitical instability, creates a similar opening. This is precisely where the principle of sufficiency becomes indispensable. It offers a coherent alternative to the destructive and inequitable economic logic that has brought us to this point, and it provides a vision for living well within tightening ecological and socio‑economic constraints.

Sufficiency scholars can learn from this historical moment. They can articulate a credible post-collapse framework by asking: how do we ensure sufficiency for all when abundance can no longer be taken for granted? How do we rebuild a socio-economic system after ecological tipping points have been crossed, without repeating the mistakes of the past? How can we safeguard solidarity and human rights in times of crisis?

With a post-collapse framework, sustainability research, and sufficiency research, in particular, can help envision institutions and practices capable of protecting rights, fostering solidarity, and enabling collective resilience in a rapidly changing world. Sufficiency is not merely a strategy for avoiding collapse; it is a foundation for navigating it with justice and dignity.